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THE EFFECT OF FEDERAL EXPENDITURE AND MONEY SUPPLY ON THE
RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT (1989-2000)
ABSTRACT
This study is motivated by the fact
that federal expenditure and money supply as a tool on the rate of
unemployment. But to which extent, these instrument have contributed either to
worsen the problem of unemployment or alleviate it.
To investigate this problem, two
hypotheses were formulated as follows.
Ho: There is no
relationship between money supply and
unemployment.
Hi: There is
no relationship between federal expenditure
and
unemployment.
In testing the hypothesis, secondary data was used and analyzed using
regression and correlation analysis as well as student t-test. The following
are summary of the major findings from the analysis carried out in the study.
Federal expenditure and money supply contributed little to the reduction on the
rate unemployment between (1980-2000).
The package of National directorate of employment programme conmcerning
encouragement and generation of employment opportunities for most especially
school teachers from secondary school and graduate from higher institution
seems to be less vigorous since 1992 till date.
The inability of government of both federal and state levels to lift embargo on
public sector employment from (1994 to August 1999) could be partly responsible
for the high level of graduate unemployment in the Urban areas.
On the strength of the findings, the following recommendations were made.
The use of these tools (federal expenditure and money supply) need to be
reviewed to enhance their potential for addressing the rate of unemployment.
Alternative tools may be used to complement federal expenditure and money
supply towards the alleviation on the rate of unemployment.
The tool thrust should be the establishment of most micro-credit scheme to
assist enterprising unemployed people to set on micro business across the
country.
There is need to build up human capital, this mean improving the knowledge,
shall, capacities and the mental and physical conditions of the masses.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE
PAGE
APPROVAL
PAGE
DEDICATION
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
ABSTRACT
TABLE
OF CONTENT
CHAPTER
ONE
1.1
Background of the study
1.2
Statement of the problem
1.3
Objective of the study
1.4
Scope of the study
1.5
Research hypothesis.
1.6
Significance of the study
1.7
Limitation of study
1.8
Definitions of basic concepts.
Reference
CHAPTER TWO
2.0
Review of Literature
2.1
Theoretical Literature
2.2
Empirical Literature
2.3
References
CHAPTER THREE
3.0
Research deign and methodology
3.1 Model
specification
3.2 Area of
study/coverage
3.3 Source
of data / analytical techniques
3.4 Decision
rule
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0
Presentation and analysis of data
4.1 Presentation
data
4.2
Presentation of table
4.3
Interpretation of table
4.4 Test of
hypothesis
4.5
Reference.
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0
Summary of findings
5.1
Conclusion
5.2
Recommendation
5.3
Suggestion for further research
5.4
Bibliography
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Unemployment is an issue that has generated debates from every nook and cranny
of the world. Its impact was more, felt during the industrial revolution when
the dimension of man power absorption changed towards the consideration of
skill as a fundamental pre-requisite. However, over the years, government
around the world have been concerned with how the unemployment question could
be answered – similarly, the Nigeria economy was characterized by severe
unemployment, especially after the civil war which necessitated policy measures
aimed at reducing it’s.
Different government since 1970 till date have tried different strategies in
order to reduce unemployment, but the result still remain persistent
unemployment resulting in a number of social and economic problems like crime,
destitution, prostitution, corruption etc associated with it.
Index, unemployment in Nigeria has assumed a frightened proportion. It is even more frightened considering the fact that high rate of unemployment create poverty, misery and threatens social cohesions reduction in the rate of unemployment has thus become a major policy thrust of the government with the assistance of some international agencies such as the international labour organization.
Index, unemployment in Nigeria has assumed a frightened proportion. It is even more frightened considering the fact that high rate of unemployment create poverty, misery and threatens social cohesions reduction in the rate of unemployment has thus become a major policy thrust of the government with the assistance of some international agencies such as the international labour organization.
Moreover, since early 1970’s the revenue base of the country has depended
largely on the oil sector which has provided over 80% of total government revenue.
The growth of resource in the sector private opportunity to initiate huge
programme which substantially.
1.2
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Scrutinizing the time series data on
unemployment in Nigeria b/w 1960 and to mind 1980. Nigeria was at a period of
economic boom, which means unemployment was something nobody could have dreamt
about, but today unemployment has become so severe that nobody likes to embrace
it.
However, unemployment in Nigeria is
primarily youth unemployment, especially secondary school leaver for instance
in 1986, they constituted 65-3 percent of all the employed in Nigeria. The
figure for 1987 for this group was 70-7 percent when figures are desegregated
by location figures for Urban unemployment were higher for all the years under
survey with the exception of 1986. The national figures for unemployment was
6.1 percent in 1986. It tell slightly to 5-3 percent in 1986 for all the year
data indicate that unemployment was higher in the urban than within the rural
area.
Today, there is a nation wide high
rate of unemployment particularly among the youth that are leader of tomorrow
unemployment appear to be inherent in the nation economic system, first,
because intentionally or unintentionally the policy maker do not resort to measure
capable of reducing unemployment to an acceptable level.
Furthermore, tax collected from
companies an private individual are misappropriated. The expenditure on capital
project are divested to private purses whilst expenditure on personnel
emolument are delayed by government officials.
This study is therefore concerned
with finding out the effect federal government expenditure and money supply on
rate of unemployment. Also, intend to investigate clearly the extent to which
these policies have contributed to worsen the problem of unemployment or
alleviate it completely.
1.3
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
The objective of the study is to make some reasonably investigations and, then
find out some facts paltering to the rate of unemployment and it level of
existence in Nigeria.
Hence, the research work will go as far as tracing the root of the problem,
ever increasing number of the unemployment rate among Nigerian and the cause of
it, mostly especially our youth.
(a) To determine the effect of federal
expenditure & money supply on the rate of unemployment in our society.
(b) To ascertain the efforts and inputs of past
and present government in the area of skill or rented or vocational educative
programme in our school toward solving the problem of unemployment.
(c) To examine the statistical application
of the study, that will help to enhance the empirical finding the effect of
federal expenditure & money supply.
(d) To determine a suitable solution toward
changing and alleviating the problem of unemployment in our society.
1.4
RESEARCH QUESTION
(a) What are the effect of federal
expenditure and money supply in changing rate of unemployment in Nigeria?
(b) Does the government make any effort in
increasing the education programmes in our school towards changing the rate
unemployment?
(c) What are the problems associated in
using statistical application.
(d) What are the effect of the policies the government
have used to change the rate of unemployment in Nigeria.
(e) What extend have the policies be used.
1.5
RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS.
Unemployment has been characterized
as one of the major attributes used to distinguish developing nation such as
Nigeria, from most developed nation, such as U.S.A. in fact, the rate at which
this phenomenon has been skyrocketing in Nigeria has become much more alarming
and beyond expectation.
HYPOTHESIS
Ho: There is no
significant relationship between money supply and unemployment.
Hi: There is
significant relationship between money supply and employment.
Ho: There is no
significant relationship between federal expenditure
and unemployment.
Hi: There is
significant relation between federal expenditure and unemployment.
Where Ho: Null hypothesis
Hi: Alternative hypothesis
1.6
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
In our nation Nigeria, it has been
confirmed and indeed apparent that no social or economic welfare equaled
finding job for the jobless citizens among us. In fact this has created a
dilemma that has inspired the researcher to investigate the roles played by
government on the changing or rat of unemployment at a goal.
Therefore, the result of this
research will help the provision of much needed information that would enhance
the creation of more employment opportunity for the masses in the society, and
these jobs may possibly come from three tiers of government (ie) Federal, state
& local the private and the citizens themselves.
Much more than that the result will
serve as a guide to the government and other employers toward initiating
programs for employment of the jobless Nigeria scattered all over the country.
1.7
LIMITATION OF STUDY
It is rare or completely impossible
to have a research work that does not have one difficult or another. In order
word every research study has some shortcoming, which arise as a result of
problem encountered by the researcher in the course of his research some
limitation notably are:- History or today in most cases are not adequate and
this specifically hampered the results of the study since a full data on unemployment
and advertised vacancies in Nigeria by industrial sector was no taken on some
of the case.
Also notable as a limitation is the
lade of sophisticated investigation of domestic data relating to the number of
unemployment citizens of Nigeria.
The problem of not having a central
process of advertising vacancies both in private public sector also constitute
a limitation.
Finally, the problem of inefficient
organized records, as well as parts the researcher into the difficult task of
locating the various case notes.
Also, the late arrived of
publication from the federal office of statistics (FOS) on their statistical
computation for unemployment are also a problem that in fact keeps the research
work non absolute. In addition the (insufficient) hour permitted to be used at
(CBN) central bank of Nigeria library for the research work contributed largely
to the limitation a well.
1.8
DEFINITION OF BASIC CONCEPTS
Monetary Policy:-
This is constructing to be action by
the monetary authorities to influence the national economic objective by
controlling or influencing the quantity and direction of money supply, credit
and the cost of credit. If is aimed at ensuring adequate supply of money to
support financial accommodating for growth and development programs on the one
hand and, stabilizes various sector of the economy for sustainable growth and
development on the other hand, monetary policy is defined as policy employing
the Central Bank Control of the money supply as an instrument for achieving the
objective of economic policy. Similarly from synthesis of most of the
literature and in the context of the Nigeria.
The ultimate targets of the monetary
policy within the time frame are:-
(1) Helping to stabilize the economy.
(2) Full employment
(3) Enhancing the efficiency of resources use
(4) Price stability
(5) Sustained increase in growth and output
(6) Supporting output and employment growth.
FEDERAL EXPENDITURE:
The is defined as government expenditure as taxes, borrowing and financial
administration to further national economic objective – Government uses it
expenditure and revenue activities to effect desired changes in income,
production, prices and employment.
These changes concern national economic objectives which are targets of
monetary & fiscal policy and include acceleration of economic growth and
development, balance of payment equilibrium, price stability and reduction of
rate of unemployment.
The main target of federal expenditure
Within these period are:-
(1) Maintenance of economic
equilibrium part to certain inflation, pressures accelerate economic growth and
development.
(2) Job creation and
employment
(3) Promotion of self-reliant
development
(4) Poverty alleviation.
UNEMPLOYMENT
This is the inability of economic cum society provide an opportunity for
individual eligible (eg) 18 to 65 years old to work and to exercise their
ability for exchange for emoluments. Hence, rendering such skills redundant and
useless in the environment through unemployment is a worldwide phenomenon, it
has assumed alarming dimension in Nigeria since the year 1980’s.
Types of unemployment.
ü Above equilibrium unemployment
ü Demand Deficient unemployment
ü Structural unemployment
ü Frictional unemployment
ü Seasonal unemployment
ü Equilibrium unemployment
ü Regional unemployment
Full Employment.
This means that those who are
eligible and willing to work at the prevailing rate of pay are able to find
work without undue for difficulty.
UNDER EMPLOYMENT
This result when through one is employed; one is not making full use of ones
ability or skill in job place, or working below capacity. It results in
disguised unemployment.
LABOUR FORCE
Person who constitute the supply of labour for production processes, they are
usually between the age of 15-19yrs. This exclude, student, homemaker, related
person, the disable and those not interest in work.
COMPANIES INCOME TAX (C.I.T)
This is a tool for revenue generating by taxing the private business enterprise
directly.
INDIRECT TAX
It is a way a generation of revenue, through taxes that individual or business
do not directly pay for, they include, excise duties, import duties value added
taxes, sales tax (etc).
GOVERNEMTN RECURRENT EXPENDITURE
(RECEX)
These are spending on running cost of the day today running of the economy and
government affair such as emolument.
GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
(CAPEX)
It is one of the fiscal tools, which entail expenditure on capital projects.
That is spending on structure, physical asserts such as: schools, roads bridges
airports and all forms of social and economic infrastructure facilities by the
government.
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