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THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATION ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE
(EXPORT) IN NIGERIA.
ABSTRACT
International trade and other economic activities between
nationalities have greatly expanded in modern times. Movements of goods and
services over great distances have made possible the consumption of such goods
and services even in place or countries where they are not produced. The
implication being and improve the standard of living for many. However,
exporting countries and importing nations trace the enormous problems or
exchange rates fluctuations. In this work an attempt have been made to
examine the impact of exchange rates fluctuations and balance of
payment (export position) in Nigeria. This is study was carried out
through the use of a questionnaire, Oral, interviews and secondary data. It was
found that there is a positive relationship between foreign exchange earnings
and volume of imports in Nigeria that the importers do not think favourable of
the structural adjustment programme and some Bank do not pay interest on the
delayed export proceeds of FEM deposit account. Based on the findings we
re commend that government should intervene to the foreign regulation of
the sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market by improving the
real productive sector of the economy. The apex bank should punish severely
banks who do not repatriate export proceeds.
CHAPTER ONE
1.1 INTRODUCTION
The historical development of international trade can be
dated as back the period of world war 1 (1914-1918).
Though world trade was heavy during world I, that world
depression of the 1930’s greatly brought a decline in world trade.
The actions of several governments aggravated the
from in the level of the world trade.
After world war ii era, the long run trend has been toward
a relaxation of trade barriers (Solomon, 1976).
International trade sprang up in both century courtesy of
mergers, acquisitions, consolidation and formulation of new companies and
various types of securities issued by co-operations from survival of expansion
following the development of financial management system, international trade
was accelerated (Ndu, 1991).
International financial developments are having an
increased effect on people because all parts of the world are now more
closely linked together than ever before. Communications throughout the world
take place within a matter of minutes or even seconds (Weston and
Copeland, 1986).
Trade and other economic contracts between countries have
expended greatly in modern time, the mass movement of commodities often over
great distance has made available many articles, which could nor be enjoyed,
hitherto and this has raised standard of living. As a result of international
trade rule now have both a greater amount and a greater variety of goods to
consume. The growth of international trade has gone hand in hand with
technological improvements in productions and with development in
transportation. These advances have made possible the large increase in the
volume and variety of goods produced and traded factories turn out large
quantities of commodities which are not only consumed locally, but are
immediately distributed to different parts of the world improvement in
transportation and the expansion of world markets have made possible this large
and economic production.
Before the advents of oil exploration in 1958,
Nigeria was an exporter of some agricultural product such as palm oil, cocoa,
palm kennel, groundnut. Rubber etc the exchange earner for the country was also
the greatest employer of labour.the importance of Agriculture can be best
appreciated when it is realized that if accounted for greatest proportion of
our Gross Domestic product (GDP). In the immediate post independence years,
Nigeria had about 72 percent of its total working population engaged in
Agricultural sector.
As a matter of tract, export declined from 75.3
percent in 1960 to 3.6 percent in 1983, while import was from n56.7 million in
1962 to n2.05 billion in 1980 (Nwachukwu 1989).
Export promotion, structural adjustment programme (SAP) as
was witnessed under the infamous Babangida regime. The main aim was to
revitalize the economic system and get rid of economic propriety for Nigeria in
which export revenues will as much from many other sources as from oil whose
fluctuations in the world market have come a nightmare for all those who plan
the economy. The deviation of the Naira was most instrumental in making prices
of export Hughes in terms of Naira because foreign currencies when converted
fetched more naira. As a result farmers now earn more for their crops than
before and this clearly has been an unprecedented inducement to
farmers to produce more for export. For instance, cocoa accounted
for about 50 percent of Nigeria’s non-oil export in 1989). Maintaining a
realistic exchange rate for exporters regardless of trade and foreign exchange
rate regime is the first requirement for export development and for sound
investment planning and for attracting meaningful foreign investment into the
country. With the introduction of sound tier foreign exchange market
(SFEM) in 1986, which gave rise to FEM and inter bank foreign exchange market
(IFEM). The idea of shopping imported.
Thus, foreign exchange transactions are payment
mechanism operated by commercial and merchant banks to for the purposes
of exchange domestic money for foreign currency or vice versa (Ebony, 1989).
A foreign exchange market has several functions if others
as a mechanism for clearing payment related to international trade or
investment on multinational basis provide credits in different currencies
including facilities against lodging exchange and determines exchange
rates between convertible currencies (Abodo, 1989). The foreign exchange rate
as well as means by which both exporters and importers can be protected against
unexpected fluctuation in exchange rates. This could be seen by the way new
companies are seting up factories across the country. Businessmen particularly
from the Far East are now coming into the country because the exchange rate has
been so attractive to them (Ayobola, 1989).
Reports put together by Nigeria trading partners inclusive
of members of the European Economics April 1989 shows that Nigeria wa the
recipient of goods valued N36.496 which fell short of her export profile at
N724.7m (FEM) (Nwosu, 1989). The official exchange rate which was N1.55$1 just
before the inception of SFEM in 1989 was 4.25 to (1.00 in June, 1989
(Nwachukwu 1989) it went on further in 1990 and 1991, as at December 30,
1991 it was N9.86 to $1.00. this deteriorated at N112 to $ 1 as at
June 22, 2001. the Federal government of Nigeria is convinced that
the exchange rate of Naira will not fixed by
executive fact but will continue to be determined by the forces of demand and
supply. The demand for foreign exchange exceeds the supply in Nigeria.
Consequently, we pay high price to obtain foreign
currencies. To improve the value of Naira on the external front, we
either increase supply or reduce demand for foreign exchange. But most
countries like Nigeria, the monetary authorities, intervene from time to time
on the side of either demand and supply so as top limit the range within the
rate has to clear the market. When such intervention occurs it implies
that the exchange rate is not being allowed to move sufficiency to
maintain a continuous balance between normal external payments and
receipts (Ebony, 1987).
The thrusts of the exchange rate policy under the
structural Adjustment programme are to discourage imports and
promote agricultural production, encourage local sourcing of raw materials
something they had considered impossible before the introduction of structural
adjustment programme. One cannot tail to notice that importation has
decreased, exports other than crude oil has increase over the months.
Problems crisis in this international transactions because
of the inefficiency in our financial system, which introduce “lag”
between the time the importer and the time of the fund are actually remitted to
the exporter. The remittance lag as we call it, introduces exchange rates risk
into the transaction. For example the rate prevailing at the time of payment by
imports may differ from the rate of which the commercial banks will use in
remitting the funds. These exchange rate differential results in either
exchange rate loss or gain on the part of the importers.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE
PROBLEMS
The foreign suggestion that the exchange rate risk as it
affects the importer as well as exporter is one that is enough to hinder
development in the country, thereby detecting the laudable objective of the
government.
The remittance lag problem has far reaching economic
implications for the society at large especially because importers already has
the business risk to worry about in international trade transaction. The
question that this paper addresses is who bears the burden of delayed interest
on transaction money caused by “remittance “lag” lasting for as long as four
months?
1.3. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
The objectives of this research work as follows:
i.
To seek and determine as far as possible methods by which this risk associated
with exchange fluctuations can be minimized.
ii.
To determined who should equitably bear the burden of the delayed interest the
commercial banks, the central bank or the importer.
iii.
To discover whether government importers are given preferential treatment
as regard the remittance of funds.
iv.
To ascertain whether it’s widely believe that the FEM policy has not achieve
a realistic exchange rate for the Naira.
v.
To ascertain whether the introduction of structural adjustment programme
by the government through foreign exchange market (FEM) is reducing the
problems created by the dual nature of international trade and .
vi. Based
on the findings to make appropriate recommendations.
1.4. STATEMENT
OF HYPOTHESIS
This work will test the following
hypothesis which shall form the core of this study.
1.
Hi: There is a significant
relationship between foreign earning and value of export in Nigeria.
Ho: There is a
significant relationship between foreign earning and value of
export in Nigeria.
2.
Hi: Nigerian banks have been paying
interest accruing on deposit exporters for letter s of credit.
1.5
SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY
The significance of this study
therefore, lies on the r recommendation made at the end of the study and their
implementation. In general, the research is immense benefit to the following:
1. Importers
and exporters who always trade and are in need of direct finance.
2. Policy
makers of the central bank of Nigeria who issue guideline governing
international trade practices.
3. Banks
especially the commercial banks.
4. Students
of finance and banking who might take a cue from the work done have to further
re search into the field of exchange rate fluctuations and international
trade.
5. The
general public who have a right to contribute and informed to the
activities of our banking institutions.
It is hoped that the, findings and recommendations of this
study will be of great importance to the above mentioned group.
1.7 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
This research will be organized into five chapters. The
first will be devoted to a clear introduction of the concept. The second
centers on the literature review of related articles written on the topic. In
the third chapter the writer will examine the methodology to be used in the
research. Chapter four will be exclusively for data analysis and presentations.
Finally, chapter five will be devoted to recommendation and conclusion of the
research.
1.8 DEFINITION OF TERMS
Deposits:
The are money kept in the bank by the customers for purchase of foreign
exchange. Multilateral and Bilateral: A state of freedom of trade. In
Multilateral it involves all countries of the world, while Bilateral, it
involves only two countries letters of credit: A document authorizing a bank to
pay the bearer a specified sum of money. It provides a useful means of
settlement for a credit on favor of his creditors at a bank.
Depreciation of Naira. This is a situation where a given a
mount of Naira buys less quantity of goods than it used to this is mainly
brought about by higher demand than supply in the exchange market.
Foreign exchange: This is the same with international
liquidity. An amount kept by a country in world or convertible currency
example dollar, with which such a country meets its international payment
obligations.
External debts: These are debt owned to external bodies or
institutions by Nigeria.
Foreign exchange squeeze: This is a situation where
Nigeria has no foreign currency, for example dollar Dr. pound sterling to buy
from droning to the dividend from export.
SFEM-
This is the market where buyers and sellers of foreign exchange meet to
transact business. In Nigeria since the Naira cannot float effectively
alongside with other currencies like U.S Dollars due to its non-convertibility
and non- trading status, an alternative is create S (FEM) where the value of
Naira can be determined by the forces of demand and supply. For example it N20
billion constitutes effective demand for Dollar and $ 10 billion currencies
effective is supply would be N2$1. Most currencies now allow free movement of
funds for ordinary trade and commerce, so called current account items since
that is where such trade would appear in the country’s balance of payments
statistics.
Deviation: A demand
change in the official parity of an exchange rate (often loosely used as
synonymy for depreciation).
A Naira devaluation of 5% in terms of sterling means that a
Niaira will buy 5% less sterling foreign exchange.
Exchange Market: It is a situation where a given amount of
Naira buys less quantity of goods. Than it used to but in this case it is
mainly increased supply of Naira by printing more notes or borrowing from
external bodies. Accrued interest in the FEM account of importers as a result
of time lag between the time the importer makes deposit and time actual payment
of good is made to the exporter Bureaux de change.
A systematic record of the economic transactions, during a
given period between the residents of a country and the rest of the
world it covers earning from flow of real resources change in country’s
foreign assets and liabilities that arises from economic transactions.
The balance of payments must always balance and it is therefore nonsense
to speak of a balance of payment difficult.
Exchange control: The set of rules introduced by the
government to prevent or just make more expensive, the ability of their
residents to invest in their countries and occasionally to restrict the inward
flow of investment.
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